ANALYSIS: No Somali President has been re-elected since 1991. Why a jittery Farmaajo is riding on an anti-Kenya wave

NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 3- The latest recall of Somalia’s ambassador to Kenya Mohamoud Ahmed Nur and ordering Kenya’s Ambassador Lucas Tumbo out of Mogadishu is President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohammed aka Farmaajo’s latest attempt to ostracise Kenya for re-election.

Somalia’s upcoming election, will give the country its tenth President in February 2021, but will not only make or break the country, but will also ripple its effects in Kenya.

Farmaajo has thrived on his anti-Kenya strategy to whip up nationalistic sentiment to see if he will be first re-elected Somalia president since the routing of strongman Siad Barre in 1991.

His concern has been lack of absolute control of Jubaland which he considers a strategic part of his quest to rule the war torn country.

He only has partial control of most if not all of the crucial states.

Farmaajo has made several attempts to destabilise and discredit Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam aka Madobe whom he sees as a Kenyan ally who fought alongside Kenya Defence Force (KDF) to rout out the Al Shabaab terrorist group.

Madobe has built a strong Jubaland Defence Force which has proved to be a formidable adversary to Farmaajo backed Somalia National Army (SNA) that has often thwarted attempts to topple him.

The hotly contested Presidential elections have attracted the incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (Darod/Marehan), former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire (Hawiye/Morursabe) two former Presidents Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud (Hawiye) and, Sheikh Sherif Hassan (Hawiye), Businessman Abshir Aden Ferro and former Somalia Interior and National Security Minister Abdikarim Hussein Guled (Hawiye/Habargidir).

Farmajo came to power riding on the popular anti-Ethiopia sentiment before quickly turning into an anti-Kenya crusade.

His popularity has continually dwindled after what has been seen as his centralism tendencies and his fight with federal state leaders in his quest to consolidate power and impose state leaders friendly to him.

The recall of the Somalia ambassador to Kenya and expulsion of Major General (Rtd) Lucas Tumbo for the purported interference by Kenya in Somalia’s affairs is the latest rant by a leader with diminishing popularity.

In Mid-September, there emerged fresh concerns over Somali National Army’s (SNA) perceived unprofessionalism and lack of discipline of its soldiers when they indiscriminately shot Kenyan civilians at the Bula Hawa border point.

This act by SNA troops irked local residents and raised the red flag on the Somali troops’ ability to independently, effectively and smoothly handle security operations in the absence of the AMISOM forces who include the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF). 

The incident was not the first of its kind.

A couple of days earlier, SNA forces indiscriminately fired at another protest in Burahache while in March there was a major security scare in Mandera town, when the SNA and forces of the Jubaland federal state of Somalia exchanged fire on the Kenyan soil injuring several local residents.

Farmaajo looks at Madobe as a formidable opponent whose utterances about eligibility to contest presidential elections compelled the president to renounce his American citizenship.

Farmaajo is also angry at Madobe whom he accuses of working for Kenya and intends to form a new administration for Jubaland.

It is no surprise therefore that he recalled the Somalia ambassador to Kenya and expelled his Kenyan counterpart to Somalia.

The situation changed for Farmaajo when Ethiopia on whom he has been relying for support in his efforts to alienate and demonize Kenya, is currently engaged in an internal conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the capture of Mekelle.

Kenya and Somalia have also been drawn into the Qatar/ United Arab Emirates (UAE) tiff

Somalia has adapted a unique electoral process in which 135 clan elders elect 14,025 delegates who then elect 275 Members of Parliament and 57 Senators. It is the 275 MPs (Lower House of Parliament) and 57 Senators (Upper House of Parliament) who then elect the President who in turn elects the Prime Minister who then appoints the cabinet.

Political infighting between President Farmaajo and presidents of the regional governments led to the government postponing the one man one vote proposal  until after the 2021 Presidential election.

The Presidential election will pit the incumbent President Farmaajo who is accused of using the current situation to advocate for an extension in his term until the period the country will be ready for the first ever, one-man-one-vote election against several others.

President Farmaajo has ridden on populist nationalism sentiments to wage animosity against Ethiopia and Kenya, who have played a crucial role in stabilizing the war-torn country.

His confrontational politics with member states has seen renewed animosity with leaders of Hirshabelle, Gamudug, South West, Jubaland and Puntland over interference of their internal matters with intentions of controlling them, has further divided the country.  

Madobe has resisted Farmaajo’s constant interference in Gedo Region which is under Jubaland jurisdiction.

Farmaajo’s instructions to arrest Jubaland’s State Security Minister Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur on 31st August 2019 and his subsequent escape in January 2020 further complicated the relationship between the him and Madobe.

Madobe has on several occasions demanded President Farmajo withdraw the FGS controlled Somali National Army (SNA) from Gedo region after clashing with Jubaland forces on several occasions.

Farmaajo even refused to recognize Madobe after his re-election and sent Somalia National Army (SNA) troops take-over but they were repulsed by Jubbaland Security Forces.

The ban of direct flights into Kismayo and blockaded the Jubbaland airspace by the Mogadishu government further soured the relationship with Farmaajo pushing for the creation of a parallel government in Gedo, which falls under Jubaland. 

To further ‘punish’ Kenya for its close relationship with Jubbaland’s President Madobe, Farmajo in March this year banned Miraa from Kenya entering Somalia.

This is despite the fact that the stimulants from Ethiopia is allowed into the country. 

Farmaajo has used the ban of miraa in Somalia to force Kenya back to the negotiation table like he did when Nairobi banned direct flights into Jomo Kenyatta international Airport (JKIA) from Mogadishu requiring all flights from Somalia to pass through Wajir Airport for security checks.

In August 2020, the Somalia government gave Kenya five conditions as a condition to lift  miraa imports.

The demands included that Kenya must treat Somalia as an equal, that Kenya must desist from interfering in Somalia’s internal affairs, apologize for supposedly violating Somalia air space, allow in goods from Somalia including fish, rice, sugar, honey, meat and milk.

Somalia also wants Kenya to stop forcing flights from Somalia to first land at Wajir for security checks.