NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 31 – Three terror related incidents occurred in the East African region over the last 10 days with security and intelligence agencies in all three countries tightening their moves in order to avert a crisis in the near future.
But while experts believe they could be separate, others in the security sector believe that terror groupings based in the region could be trying to make a statement, that has governments on edge, over their changing of tactics.
Events in Afghanistan following the ‘unprecedented’ takeover by the Taliban has everyone on high alert as governments across the world scramble to ensure they snuff out any terror related threats.
In Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, what seemed like the actions of a random gun man, shooting security officers on Wednesday last week, quickly became the subject of police investigations into the individual, whom they believed had close links to known terror organizations
A day after the incident, Ugandan security agencies took into custody a man who was found with explosive materials and bomb making ingredients.
The man who was at a guest house in Kampala, is expected face terror related charges in the Ugandan court system.
Meanwhile in Kenya, Anti Terror police Unit officers (ATPU) arrested suspects in Mombasa county who were found in possession of weapons which the police claim were meant to undertake a terror attack in the country.
Hassan Khanneje, a security and diplomacy expert says, that while the timing could be within reach of each other, the incidents may not be related.
“We can not say they are related in part because, the events in Tanzania appear to be a spillover from what is taking place in Mozambique. In the past year, there were a series of attacks, along the border in Mtwara in Tanzania emanating principally from Tanzania, I would not say they are connected, but its not beyond the realms of imagination,” said Hassan Khanneje, a security and diplomacy expert.
With the terror threat arising in the region, is it possible to connect the activities of the different groups based in the region?
“The group in Mozambique calls itself ansar al sunnah, it has very little connections to the Al-Shabaab as we know it. We know its been branded Al-Shabaab because of the commonalities in the way they execute some of those attacks, and in part because Southern Africa does not have any other reference point to terrorist groups, other than Al-Shabaab in East Africa. Much of the connection to the Mozambique group is linked to the Kenyan coast and Tanzania,” he said.
Back at the heart of Al-Shabaab , AMISOM commanders have been meeting in a bid to begin talks on the future of the horn of Africa nation.
“Our mandate is to degrade Al-Shabaab, which we continue to do since we came into
Somalia. We have secured population centres which gives the local population the freedom to go about their day-to-day activities,” said Major General William Kitsao Shume, Deputy Force cOMMANDER (AMISOM) Operations and Plans.
Many experts fear that securing Somalia may not be possible for the Somali National Army (SNA), with the threat of the terror outfit becoming stronger in the absence of foreign military.
“I personally appreciate the enduring work you do in the sectors for the sake of peace and stability of this great country, Somalia. However, there is a need to generate a joint AMISOM/SNA realistic, workable and fixed CONOPS, which calls for an appropriate threat assessment and an honest assessment of the friendly forces,” Said Lt. General Diomede Ndegeya, Force Commander (AMISOM)
AMISOM commanders say they are working under the Somalia Transition Plan, a strategy developed by the Federal Government of Somalia and its partners to guide the transfer of security responsibilities to Somalia Security Forces ahead of AMISOM’s exit from the country.
There are fears that a mirror effect of current events in Afghanistan, may come into play and further complicate matters of securing the region.
“The danger that has led to what we saw in Afghanistan, is what we call the Afghanistan fatigue. Increasingly in the horn of Africa, there is a palpable somali fatigue, when it comes to intervention and peace making. It is very dangerous, to abandon Somalia at this hour. The government is still very fragile, the elections are uncertain and there is a likelihood that it may turn violent,” said Khanneje.
As events unfold internationally, many governments in the region remain on high alert to avert any spillover effects back home.
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