Conflict Major Driver Of Terrorism –GTI 2024 Report

NAIROBI Kenya March 20

Conflict remains the primary driver of terrorist activity, with over 90 per cent of terror attacks and deaths in 2023 reported in countries in conflict.

According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2024, Israel had the largest increase in terrorism deaths in 2023 following the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, increasing from 24 in 2022 to 1,210 deaths last year.

The attack in Israel by Hamas was the single largest terrorist attack in history, and the biggest since the 9/11 terror attack.

“In 2023, 98 per cent of terrorism deaths occurred in countries experiencing some level of conflict. Most of these occurred in countries at war, but the number of deaths in countries involved in minor conflicts has been steadily rising,” the report states.

The consequences of the Israeli attack have been immense and are still unfolding, with an estimated 25,000 Palestinians killed by Israel’s retaliatory military response as of February 2024.

The GTI 2024 report also states that Iraq is no longer amongst the ten countries most impacted by terrorism, with less than 100 deaths from terrorism recorded in 2023.

Prior to 2023, Iraq had been ranked in the top ten every year.

The report further states that terrorism deaths in 2023 fell by 519 in Afghanistan in 2023, an 81 percent improvement.

Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the world’s deadliest terrorist group in 2023, despite deaths attributed to the group and its affiliates declining by 17 per cent from 1,963 to 1,636 deaths.

The four terrorist groups responsible for the most deaths in 2023 were Islamic State (IS), Hamas, Jamaat Nusrat AlIslam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and al shabaab.

Of the 3,350 terrorist attacks recorded in 2023, 54 per cent were attributed to a group.

The countries with the highest number of attacks not attributed to a group were Myanmar, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Pakistan.

The GTI report states that terrorism has become more concentrated over the past decade. The number of countries recording at least one death from terrorism fell to 41 in 2023, down from 44 in 2022 and 57 in 2015.

Deaths attributed to the group and its affiliates – Islamic State –Khorasan Province (ISK), Islamic State – Sinai Province (ISS), Islamic State – Sahel and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) – fell by 17 per cent over the last year to 1,636, the lowest number since 2014.

The group carried out attacks in 20 countries in 2023, down from 30 countries in 2020.

There is an intensification of terrorism, with fewer attacks committed by fewer groups while causing a larger number of fatalities.

“The increase in the intensity of terrorism has driven a rise in the lethality rate of terrorist attacks to just under 2.5 fatalities per attack, compared to 1.6 in 2022, the highest level since 2015,” the report states.

There is a strong correlation between organised crime and terrorism, and this link is clearest in the central Sahel region.

As terrorist groups like JNIM have expanded their territorial control in the region, there has been a surge in kidnappings, ransom demands, and attacks on gold mining operations.

Terrorist groups integrate organised criminal operations by co-opting illicit economies, taxing both criminal and unregulated legal enterprises, and providing security for criminal groups and the transportation of illicit goods.

The report also states that terrorism is not the deadliest form of violence in the world.

Armed conflict results in nine times more fatalities than terrorism, homicide accounts for over 45 times more, and deaths from suicide are 72 times higher.

However, terrorism is unique as its unpredictability and high casualty rates lead to significant emotional and psychological impacts, which can in turn lead to significant social and geopolitical repercussions.