By Hassan Khannenje, PhD
NAIROBI, Kenya, Jun 22- The coming to power of Abiy Ahmed in 2018 against the backdrop of persistent violence, prodemocracy protests, and the subsequent actions he undertook both domestically in terms of political reforms and diplomatically within the region was seen as a momentous period both for Ethiopia as well as the region.
The protests had challenged the facade of unity and stability and questioned the viability of the ethno-federalist project.
As such, Abiy, was viewed as the answer to this conundrum.
However, the fallout from the Tigray conflict, the credibility of the upcoming elections, and increasing international isolation have dented Abiy’s international image, derailed his reform agenda and created uncertainties on the viability and durability of the Ethiopian state.
–Abiy Ahmed the Reformer and Peacemaker–
Abiy Ahmed represented the movement towards reforms, democratization and political stability having rode on the reform protest movement to power.
Abiy’s immediate and main objectives were to spearhead the transition by undertaking democratic and economic reforms, to build unity and ensure participatory governance.
Reforms quickly gained momentum leading to release of political prisoners, opening up of political space and dissolution of the long-ruling coalition, the Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
Prosperity Party was thus formed to replace EPRDF as Abiy prepared the country to hold its first popular elections. Economically, he embarked on efforts to liberalize certain sectors of the state-controlled economy.
In 2018, the Prime Minister reached a peace agreement with Eritrea and later a trilateral cooperation agreement between Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea which restored peace and stability among the erstwhile enemies in addition to Abiy’s active regional diplomacy, earning him a Nobel Peace Prize in the same year.
–Troubled Reforms–
However, while Abiy Ahmed intensified transition reforms, ethnic power dynamics were changing, with power shifting from the long-ruling minority Tigray (through Tigray People’s Liberation Front – TPLF) to the majority Oromo (Abiy’s ethnic group) and Amhara (historically Tigrayan rivals).
As reforms dismantled the TPLF power structure in security, political and economic sectors, the TPLF faction began to resent Abiy’s administration and reforms.
TPLF further reduced its commitment to EPRDF and subsequently rejected the Prosperity Party, putting it on a collision course with the federal government.
On the other hand, opening up of the political space to opposition groups also led to increased opposition mobilization especially in his own ethnic constituency of Oromo led by the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) as well as armed groups such as Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).
The changing security and political dynamics rocked the transition as Abiy’s administration resorted to repressive measures to respond to increased demands, closing up the very political space he had helped build.
He literally swapped his predecessors’ political prisoners for his own such as Bekele Gerba and Jawar Mohammed.
His fiercest critic singer Hachalu Hundesa was assassinated, plunging Ethiopia into social unrest and political uncertainty
–The Conflict in Tigray: Abiy’s Waterloo–
The armed conflict in Tigray which broke out in November 2020, was thus unsurprising given the nearly three years of mutual animosity between the TPLF (former ruling faction of EPRDF and Tigray region’s ruling party) and Abiy Ahmed’s administration. TPLF and other dissenting groups had long resisted the manner in which reforms and the transition were being managed.
It was perceived as an attempt to target TPLF and weaken ethnic federalism in Ethiopia. However, the decision by the federal government to postpone elections of 2020 by a year due to Covid-19 risks, exacerbated the tensions between TPLF and the federal government.
TPLF viewed the move to postpone elections as an attempt at illegal extension of Abiy’s mandate and a bid to stifle competitive politics, thus declaring the federal government illegitimate.
The federal government responded by rejecting TPLF-run elections in Tigray and a TPLF-elected government, paving way for an imminent confrontation.
While the federal military moved into Tigray ostensibly for short term a “Rule of Law Operation” to dislodge the TPLF government and facilitate TPLF leadership’s prosecution, the end doesn’t seem near and the region is currently trapped in the country’s worst humanitarian disaster since the famine of the early 1980s.
Over 5 million people need emergency food assistance, hundreds of thousands are internally displaced and 60,000 have fled into Sudan as refugees.
The involvement of Eritrean troops and Amhara regional forces in alliance with Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF), has further led to gross violations of human rights, reprehensible atrocities and hardened ethnic animosities between Amhara and Tigray ethnic groups. Coupled with inter-ethnic conflagrations elsewhere in Ethiopia, the conflict has put Ethiopia on a precipice.
-International Pressure-
As reports of war crimes and crimes against humanity continue to emerge around the conflict in Tigray, international pressure is mounting on Abiy Ahmed’s administration to roll back the military policy in the region, expel Eritrean troops, grant full access to humanitarian supplies, and facilitate independent investigations into atrocities committed by all sides.
The aid-dependent country now faces serious aid cuts by the United States and the European Union, as well as blacklisting by multilateral lending institutions such as World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The international image of the Abiy-led government is severely damaged in the wake of the Tigray debacle and domestic legitimacy questions.
-June 21 Elections: Key Actors and Issues-
Perhaps in a bid to reverse this trend, the Ethiopian government will be holding the previously twice-postponed elections on June 21 this year.
The election has attracted the participation of at least 47 political parties, with Abiy’s main challengers being Berhanu Nega of Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice and Merera Gudina of Medrek.
While Abiy enjoys majority support, the June 21 elections will certainly fall short of democratic standards of fairness, transparency, inclusivity and credibility.
The country’s political and security crises means at least 40 constituencies are incapable of participating in the elections, disenfranchises nearly the whole of Tigray (6 per cent of the population), and the number of registered voters (31 million) falls way below the target (50 million).
Main opposition groups such as the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), OLF and TPLF (also banned by the federal government) will boycott the elections amidst intimidation and imprisonment of opposition figures, and the conflict in Tigray.
- Uncertain Future
While Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party are poised to win the coming elections, it will at best be a farcical political exercise that will grant him neither the domestic political legitimacy he needs to build a united country no will it offer him a much desired diplomatic reprieve necessary restore international development partnerships. The current conditions are just not conducive for free, fair and credible elections.
On the other hand, Abiy’s economic reforms have stagnated, with the Ethiopian economy stuck in huge foreign debt distress, acute shortage of foreign exchange, drops in foreign investment, runaway balance of payment deficits, and the lowest economic growth in decades.
Unemployment has further worsened with the Covid-19 pandemic and poverty likely rising across the population creating a recipe for future unrests and instability and laying a difficult trap for the Ethiopian leader.
Overcoming these challenges will be central both to Abiy’s political future and the preservation of Ethiopian nationhood.
Hassan Khannenje, PhD is the Director, HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies;
Adjunct Professor, Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, Wayne State University. hkannenje@yahoo.com
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