By Ahmed Muhumed
In the Horn of Africa, a complex geopolitical maneuver is underway following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and the secessionist Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi. This agreement has set off a series of reactions, igniting both regional and international controversies.
Perceived as an obtuse maneuver aimed at securing sea access and bolstering economic ties for Addis Ababa, the recent agreement between the leaders raises significant apprehensions and ability to destabilize the entire region.
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland is viewed, and rightly so, as illegal and raises geopolitical concerns. Somalia, facing internal governance frailty since the 1991 civil war, has struggled to consolidate governance, allowing Ethiopia to exploit perceived weaknesses.
Ethiopia’s objective is to secure seaport access and economic benefits, while “Somaliland” seeks an elusive international legitimacy. Despite historical tensions and security issues, the agreement violates international law regarding Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding complexity to the region’s progress.
The Federal Government of Somalia must navigate internal governance challenges while addressing external threats firmly.
The agreement, allowing Ethiopia access to the Berbera Port and leasing 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastline for the Ethiopian Navy, is a cause for worry.
While reciprocated with phony and fraudulent promises of recognition for Somaliland’s autonomy, this move has the potential to heighten regional tensions and undermine Somalia’s territorial integrity.
The development will risk escalating existing conflicts and sets a precedent that could lead to further instability in the Horn of Africa.
The delicate balance in this geopolitically sensitive region requires careful consideration, and the international community should advocate for strict adherence to territorial integrity to eschew potential destabilization and promote lasting peace.
Yet, the consequences of this maneuver reaches beyond Ethiopia’s immediate focus. Amid internal conflicts with federal states, particularly in the Tigray and Amhara regions, the choice to establish a military presence in Somaliland prompts serious doubts about the prudence of expanding military commitments while addressing pressing domestic challenges.
Regional Backlash and Internal Strife
The immediate reactions to the alleged MoU by the militant group al-Shabaab underscore the fragility of the situation.
Al-Shabaab, engaged in a more than 15-year-long strive, has sought to topple the internationally recognized Somali Government, contributing significantly to Somalia’s instability. Notably, Al-Shabaab gained prominence following Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in 2006.
The group has been heavily capitalizing as content for its owned and affiliate media on the MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland that has the potential to radicalize more young people in Somalia and neighbouring countries.
Given the history of animosity of average Somalis and the insurgent group’s long standing arms struggle by any foreign involvement coupled with the perceived enmity with Ethiopia could be exploited by al-Shabaab to recruit more fighters.
This development poses a considerable challenge to ongoing efforts to counter the insurgency and stabilize the rest of the region.
For decades, Mogadishu has struggled to establish a stable and secure environment for its citizens. It is imperative that the international community takes a collective and nuanced approach to address the multifaceted challenges faced by Somalia.
It is also imperative that the international community takes a collective approach in the wake of this blant annexation plans by Ethiopia and address the multifaceted security concerns plaguing Somalia.
The nation recently embraced a new chapter by joining the East African Community (EAC), offering a promising avenue for regional cooperation and economic integration. However, the potential for progress is overshadowed by Ethiopia’s unsettling annexation plans for Somaliland, posing a threat to the envisioned improvements and compounding the existing complexities.
The admission into the EAC was a result of thorough assessments evaluating the strength of public institutions. This inclusive process prioritized the involvement of women and young people, ensuring their full participation in shaping the nation’s future.
Despite these strides, concerns arise due to Ethiopia’s felonious agreement with Somaliland, a move that, under international law, cannot legitimize the secession of a part of the country. The achievements in bolstering public institutions and fostering inclusivity should not be undermined by geopolitical maneuvers that challenge the territorial integrity of the nation.
While the withdrawal of the arms embargo and debt relief for Somalia last year remain crucial milestones, Ethiopia’s violation, as seen in the controversial MOU with Somaliland, poses a potential challenge. The geopolitical tensions and violations of Somalia’s territorial integrity might complicate the positive trajectory, creating uncertainties that could impact the overall development and stability of the region.
The international community’s confidence in Somalia’s reform efforts may face strains due to these external challenges. The Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland poses significant risks to Kenya and the broader region.
Firstly, it could exacerbate existing tensions in the Horn of Africa, potentially leading to regional instability. Kenya, as a neighboring country, could face spillover effects from any conflict or unrest resulting from the agreement.
It undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity, setting a concerning precedent for other breakaway regions across Africa. This erosion of sovereign borders could fuel separatist movements in neighboring countries and beyond.
It also threatens to disrupt maritime trade routes in the region. Any disruption to trade flows could have adverse economic consequences for Kenya and other regional economies reliant on maritime commerce.
Furthermore, it may deepen divisions within the East African Community (EAC) by sidelining Somalia, a member state. This could weaken regional integration efforts and hinder collective responses to common challenges such as security threats and economic development.
Somalia’s strategic location along key maritime routes has made it susceptible to piracy, which has economic implications beyond its borders.
The rift between the two neighbors could jeopardize international counter-piracy efforts that need to be sustained and reinforced, involving regional and international naval forces working in tandem with Somali authorities to safeguard the vital sea lanes and foster maritime security.
The One Earth Future Foundation’s project, Oceans Beyond Piracy, publishers of the report, the Economic Cost of Somali Piracy noted how the global economy felt the weight of Somali piracy, with the sea transportation industry bearing 80% of the impact, while governments globally incurred the remaining 20% for anti-piracy efforts. The report estimates the overall cost to range between $6.6 to $6.9 billion in US dollars.
In 2011, the economic toll of Somali piracy reverberated globally, with staggering costs borne by various sectors. Ransoms totaling $159.62 million reflected the high stakes of maritime security, as 31 payments were made, averaging $4.97 million, a notable increase from the previous year.
Piracy-related insurance premiums, primarily War Risk and Kidnap and Ransom (K&R), reached an estimated $635 million. Security measures, including armed guards and equipment mandated by Best Management Practices Version Four (BMP4), incurred expenses ranging from $1.064 to $1.16 billion. Ship re-routing to avoid piracy hotspots accounted for costs between $486 million and $680 million.
The enhanced speeds recommended by BMP4 added an estimated $2.7 billion to container ship expenditures. Labor costs, addressing compensation for seafarers, tallied approximately $195.06 million.
Prosecutions and imprisonment of suspected pirates amounted to $16,429,631. Military operations, encompassing multinational task forces and UAV deployment, reached a staggering $1,273,266,011.
Ethiopia’s move through the MoU will watershed the multifaceted economic support against Somali piracy, made possible by a comprehensive approach by the Somali government, maritime security and international collaboration to mitigate the threat.
International Skepticism
Diplomatic reactions have sided with Somalia notably the Arab League, the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and other countries backing Somalia’s position.
A mild response from the Intergovernmental Government on Development (IGAD) only suggests a nuanced approach, but the overall international sentiment leans toward supporting Somalia’s stance.
Understanding the historical context is crucial. Ethiopia, historically landlocked, has sought reliable sea access for trade. After the annexation of Eritrea in 1962, Ethiopia gained access, but subsequent conflicts severed those ties.
Djibouti emerged as a key trade partner, but Ethiopia continued exploring alternative routes, leading to the recent overtures to Somaliland.
Following Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia’s main trade route has been through the Red Sea port of Djibouti. However, this reliance comes at a significant cost, with Djibouti charging Ethiopia over a billion dollars annually in port fees. This poses a considerable burden for Ethiopia, where nearly a fifth of the population of 119 million still depends on food aid.
In recent years, the Ethiopian government has been exploring diversification options in neighboring countries such as Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan. In August 2023, Ethiopian officials visited Kenya’s Lamu port for discussions, signaling a potential shift in trade routes.
While the MoU, though improbable, might offer Ethiopia a strategic alternative through the Berbera Corridor, it does so at the risk of exacerbating internal strife and straining regional relations.
The potential implications of the agreement, compounded by Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, and the reactions from neighboring nations, including Djibouti’s reaffirmation of its commitment to Somalia’s Unity, Territorial Integrity, and Sovereignty, raise significant concerns about its impact on regional stability.
The international community’s response, veering from cautious monitoring to outright condemnation, underscores the complex dynamics at play.
Somalia is now presented with a unique opportunity to leverage the situation to its advantage and use this development to rally the country around unity and territorial integrity.
Given that the MoU faces monumental challenges, including its legality, the Federal Government has an opening to galvanize public support for a unified Somalia. Mogadishu has the chance to structure the agreement of Ethiopia with a regional government within its borders, as a threat to the it’s sovereignty. Somali leaders can forge a sense of national pride and solidarity among the citizens.
The illegality also provides an opportune moment for the Somali government to engage in diplomatic efforts, both regionally and internationally highlighting the importance of respecting sovereign boundaries and the principles of international law. The focus can be on garnering support for Somalia’s stance, reinforcing the nation’s commitment in strengthening consensus regarding its nationhood.
Advancements in critical state-building domains, such as establishing effective but customized federalism, formalizing frameworks for sharing resources and power, implementing comprehensive security sector reforms, and promoting integrated infrastructure development, will enhance Somalia’s regional influence and foster stronger relationships.
A Call for Diplomacy and Caution
The international community must engage in constructive discussions to prevent further destabilization in a region already grappling with multiple crises.
International actors, including the United Nations, regional organizations, and donor countries, must collaborate with the government of Somalia to strengthen institutions, promote political inclusivity, and provide targeted assistance in areas crucial to stability.
As Ethiopia charts its course through the turbulent waters of regional geopolitics, the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU emerges as a great disruptor.
The delicate balance required to manage internal conflicts, navigate regional sensitivities, and address international concerns demands astute diplomacy.
It is crucial for all stakeholders to tread cautiously, prioritize diplomatic solutions, and work towards fostering stability in a region that can ill afford further disruptions.
Only through sustained collaboration can we hope to bring about a more stable and secure future for the people of Somalia and contribute to regional peace and prosperity.
Ahmed Muhumed Abdi is the Deputy Governor, Wajir County Government.
Want to send us a story? Contact Shahidi News Tel: +254115512797 (Mobile & WhatsApp)
